Swiss chocolate industry shows first signs of recovery from cocoa crisis

Swiss chocolate makers are seeing the first measurable signs that the cocoa crisis may be easing. After two years of shrinking volumes, cocoa prices have fallen sharply from their 2024 peak and global demand indicators have turned upwards.

Analysts at Swiss bank Vontobel wrote on Wednesday that the sector could be approaching a turning point. “We believe that the low point in sales volumes is now behind us,” they said in a report on the Swiss chocolate industry. The analysts stressed that the recovery remains at an early stage.

The change matters across Switzerland’s food industry. Higher cocoa costs forced manufacturers to lift prices, while households facing more expensive groceries shifted towards cheaper supermarket own-brand products. Swiss brands, from industrial suppliers to premium producers, have had to protect margins while trying to keep consumers buying chocolate.

Cocoa now costs roughly £4,500 per tonne, according to the report. That is about 60% below the 2024 peak, although it remains approximately twice the historical average. The price decline gives manufacturers some relief, but it has not yet translated into lower shelf prices or a broad return of volume growth.

The 2025 figures show how severely the cocoa shock hit Switzerland. Chocosuisse reported a 7.9% decline in the volume of Swiss chocolate sold last year. Exports fell even further, by 9.3%, a significant setback for an industry that relies heavily on international markets and the reputation of Swiss-made products.

Turnover rose by 11.8%, but the increase reflected higher prices rather than stronger demand. The same pressure appeared in household consumption. Swiss per capita chocolate consumption fell 2.7% in 2025 as shoppers responded to more expensive products.

The price increases were substantial. Vontobel said leading suppliers had raised product prices by a cumulative 25% to 50% since 2024. Lindt & Sprüngli, one of Switzerland’s best-known chocolate companies, reported 4.3% organic revenue growth in the first half of 2026. Yet price increases of 11.8% accounted for most of that rise, and volumes remained under pressure.

For Swiss consumers, the figures describe a familiar shopping pattern: fewer impulse purchases, greater attention to promotions and a move towards cheaper alternatives. For manufacturers, they show why falling cocoa prices alone cannot guarantee a quick recovery in sales.

Demand data has finally moved in the direction manufacturers have been waiting for. Global cocoa grindings rose in the second quarter of 2026, marking the first increase after six consecutive declines. The measure tracks how much cocoa processors use and is treated as an important early indicator of chocolate demand.

Barry Callebaut, the Swiss-based chocolate and cocoa products group, provided a second signal. Its sales volume increased 5.7% in the third quarter of its 2025/26 financial year, the company’s first volume growth in two years. That result suggests some customers may be returning after cutting orders or reformulating products during the price shock.

The recovery remains uneven. Lindt expects a return to growth in 2027, but its first-half figures show the difficulty of rebuilding demand after repeated price increases. Revenue can rise while the number of products sold continues to lag.

Swiss manufacturers must also manage costs beyond cocoa. Energy, packaging, transport and labour expenses remain part of the production equation. Villars chief executive Nicolas Forget has said the company intends to remain in Switzerland while improving visibility and controlling costs. That approach reflects the wider challenge: preserve Swiss production and quality while making chocolate affordable enough to regain volume.

West African harvests will determine how durable the recovery becomes. Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon produce around three-quarters of the world’s cocoa, according to the Vontobel analysis. A poor harvest in any of these major producing countries can quickly affect processors and chocolate makers worldwide.

The crisis began with supply shortages caused by poor harvests, plant diseases and ageing trees. Speculation in commodity markets added to the price surge. Cocoa prices climbed above £10,000 per tonne in 2024, placing manufacturers under intense pressure and contributing to the price increases seen in Swiss shops.

Vontobel analysts have identified El Niño as a continuing risk. The weather phenomenon is expected to be particularly strong this year and next, bringing higher temperatures and less rainfall to West Africa. Those conditions could increase drought risk and damage yields.

The geography of cocoa production limits the industry’s room for manoeuvre. Unlike some agricultural commodities, cocoa shortfalls in West Africa cannot easily be replaced by supply from other regions. Brazil is seeking a larger role in the cocoa market, including as a potential supplier to Switzerland, but expanding production takes time and does not remove the immediate exposure to weather and disease.

Swiss chocolate is entering 2027 with better indicators, but little room for complacency. Lower cocoa prices can gradually reduce pressure on manufacturers, while stronger grindings and Barry Callebaut’s volume growth suggest that demand may be stabilising. The industry still faces a long recovery after the falls recorded in 2025.

The key test will be whether consumers return as prices settle. Manufacturers raised prices by 25% to 50% since 2024, and the report gives no indication that those increases will quickly unwind. Companies must decide how much of any cocoa cost relief to pass on, how to rebuild volumes and how to preserve margins in a market where shoppers have already changed habits.

Lindt & Sprüngli’s expectation of renewed growth in 2027 offers one benchmark for the premium segment. Barry Callebaut’s volume performance offers another for industrial demand. Neither result settles the outlook, particularly with El Niño threatening West African harvests.

For Switzerland, the recovery will be measured in factory orders, export volumes and the number of shoppers willing to pay for Swiss chocolate. The industry has moved away from the worst of the price shock. It has not yet returned to normal.