Swiss voters to decide on VAT increase to fund 13th pension payment

The first poll puts opponents just ahead, with the funding question now set to go before voters on November 29. Swiss voters approved an additional annual payment through the old-age and survivors’ insurance scheme, known as AHV, in 2024. They will now decide whether a VAT rise should pay for it.

The Federal Council and parliament propose increasing VAT by 0.4 percentage points. The first payment is scheduled for December 2026, making the financing vote an immediate test of how the newly approved benefit should be funded.

A representative SRG poll conducted by gfs.bern from October 5 to 18 found 49% opposed to the increase and 46% in favour, with 5% undecided. The three-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error, leaving the campaign finely balanced at its outset.

The poll shows a narrow lead for rejection, not a settled verdict. Nearly half of eligible voters were still without a firm decision, including people leaning towards either side as well as those who did not know how they would vote. The campaign has only just begun, and opinion could shift before polling day.

The survey found a clear age divide. Older voters were more likely to back the increase, while younger voters mostly opposed it. Voters in the middle age group were evenly split. Support was strongest among those due to benefit when the extra payment begins in December 2026.

Income appeared to make less difference: support and opposition were broadly balanced across income groups. Party allegiance, by contrast, had a marked effect on voters’ positions. The poll’s narrow overall result therefore sits alongside clear differences between age groups and political camps.

The strongest tested case against the tax rise called for structural reform. All three arguments against the proposal tested in the poll won clear majorities. The most persuasive was that AHV’s funding gaps should be addressed through structural changes rather than higher taxes and levies. One measure highlighted in that debate was raising the state pension age.

Supporters also made a fairness argument: a VAT increase would ensure that all generations contributed. 54% of those surveyed considered that reasoning fair. But the claim that the tax rise represented a reasonable compromise failed to win majority support, even though it had the greatest influence on voting intentions.

Taken together, arguments in favour attracted less support than the proposal itself. That leaves supporters with a close poll lead in neither direction and a campaign in which the debate over long-term pension reform is already central.

The November ballot will decide the proposed funding route for a benefit voters have already approved. The Federal Council and parliament want the extra AHV payment financed by raising VAT by 0.4 percentage points. The first payment is scheduled for December 2026, while the financing proposal goes to a nationwide vote on November 29.

The poll gives both camps reason to keep campaigning. Opponents lead by three percentage points, but that difference is within the margin of error. The survey also found 5% undecided, while many voters had yet to settle firmly on either side. Swiss voters’ views on government proposals often move towards the Federal Council and parliament’s position as a campaign progresses.

Support among voters over 65 could matter because this group is more likely to back the increase and has above-average turnout. The result will determine whether the proposed VAT rise receives public approval as the means of paying for the additional annual pension.