Swiss tourism holds up despite Middle East disruption

Swiss hotels are on course for 41.1 million overnight stays in 2026, even as war-related disruption to air traffic weighs on travel from parts of Asia and the Gulf. Switzerland Tourism forecasts a 1% fall across the year, a limited drop against a backdrop of disrupted connections following the Israeli-American war against Iran. The outlook puts the domestic market and visitors from the Americas at the centre of the sector’s resilience. Swiss residents account for more than half of tourism demand, and Switzerland Tourism expects their overnight stays to rise 0.6%. Brazil and Canada are also forecast to grow. The overall result masks sharper losses in some long-haul markets and weaker forecasts across several European countries. For hotels and destinations, the figures point to a year in which demand from closer-to-home travellers and the Americas helps counter reduced arrivals from Asia and the Gulf.

The steepest forecast declines come from South-East Asia, India and the Gulf states. Switzerland Tourism expects overnight stays from South-East Asia to fall 19% in 2026, with India down 18.4% and Gulf states down 15.9%. The agency links the pressure on these markets to severe disruption in air traffic. The outlook differs sharply for some other long-haul visitors: overnight stays from Brazil are forecast to rise 7.4%, while Canada is expected to grow 4.7%. Japan is also projected to increase by 2%. European markets are forecast to soften, though the predicted changes are smaller than those for the affected Asian and Gulf markets. Germany is down 0.3%, France 0.5%, the Benelux countries 1.9% and the United Kingdom 3.6%. Together, the forecasts show how unevenly the travel disruption is affecting Switzerland’s international visitor base.

Gulf visitor trends diverged between Geneva and Graubünden during the first eight months of the year. Geneva recorded a 12.6% fall in overnight stays by Gulf visitors between January and August, while Graubünden saw a 12.6% increase from the same clientele over that period. The contrast shows how national forecasts can conceal different outcomes at destination level. Geneva Tourism said the decline in demand from Gulf states was not solely due to the war in Iran. Switzerland Tourism’s national forecast expects Gulf overnight stays to fall 15.9% for 2026 as a whole. For Swiss destinations, the figures offer two distinct local pictures: fewer Gulf stays in Geneva and growth in Graubünden so far this year. The contrast sits alongside a broader forecast in which the Swiss market, accounting for more than half of demand, provides a stable base for the tourism sector.

Switzerland Tourism expects overnight stays to remain almost flat in 2027, with a 0.3% decline. Its forecast points to Asia growing 6%, partly offsetting the weaker performance expected in 2026. The domestic market is projected to slip 0.6%, while neighbouring markets are forecast to fall 1.1%. Travel costs are another pressure: Chinese online travel agencies expect airfares to Europe to rise by 20% to 30% in 2027 as higher kerosene prices make trips more expensive. Switzerland Tourism also cites geopolitical instability, unrest and protests in several European cities, and air-safety concerns following a recent spate of bomb threats as factors affecting the travel outlook. For Switzerland, the near-flat forecast follows a year in which domestic demand and visitors from the Americas are expected to cushion losses in several long-haul markets. The 2027 outlook keeps that balance in focus as market conditions shift.