Swiss chocolate industry sees tentative recovery after cocoa crisis

Cocoa prices have fallen 60% from their peak, giving Swiss chocolate makers their first clear opening after two punishing years. The price of cocoa is now around £4,500 per tonne, down from more than £10,000 in 2024, when supply shortages and speculation drove the market to a historic high.

Vontobel analysts say the Swiss sector may have passed its lowest point in sales volumes. Their report, published on Wednesday, described the recovery as possible but still at an early stage. That cautious assessment matters in Switzerland, where chocolate remains both a major export product and a closely watched part of the food industry.

The crisis reached consumers through supermarket shelves, tourist shops and premium confectionery counters. Manufacturers raised prices to absorb the cost of cocoa, while households increasingly chose cheaper own-brand products. Lower cocoa prices could ease pressure on producers, but they have not yet restored the purchasing power lost during the price shock.

The first signs of renewed demand are appearing in global processing data. Cocoa grindings increased in the second quarter of 2026, ending six consecutive quarterly declines. Swiss companies now need that signal to translate into sustained orders.

Swiss chocolate sales volume fell 7.9% in 2025, even as industry turnover climbed 11.8%. The figures from Chocosuisse show how sharply price increases distorted the market. Companies generated more revenue, but they sold less product and reached fewer consumers.

Exports suffered an even deeper decline, falling 9.3% during the year. Switzerland’s manufacturers compete globally on quality, brand reputation and premium positioning, yet those advantages could not fully shield them from higher input costs. Per capita chocolate consumption also dropped 2.7%, confirming that the pressure reached domestic buyers.

Leading suppliers have raised product prices by a cumulative 25% to 50% since 2024, according to Vontobel. Lindt & Sprüngli illustrates the effect. The company reported 4.3% organic revenue growth in the first half of 2026, but prices increased 11.8% and volumes remained under pressure.

Consumers have adapted quickly. Some have shifted to supermarket own-label products, while others have reduced the frequency or size of their purchases. A durable recovery will require manufacturers to rebuild volume without immediately passing every cost increase on to shoppers.

Barry Callebaut has recorded its first sales volume growth in two years, a 5.7% increase in the third quarter of its 2025/26 financial year. The Zurich based cocoa and chocolate supplier serves manufacturers around the world, making its figures an important signal for the wider industry.

The result does not erase the losses accumulated during the crisis. It does show that companies and customers may be adjusting to a higher price environment. Manufacturers have changed product sizes, reviewed recipes, managed inventories more closely and focused on brands that can command a premium.

For Swiss producers, the recovery will also depend on visibility and cost control. Villars chief executive Nicolas Forget has said the Fribourg based maker intends to remain in Switzerland despite rising costs, while increasing its visibility and protecting efficiency.

Lindt & Sprüngli is also preparing for renewed growth, with management looking toward 2027. Its first half revenue performance was positive, but the company still relied mainly on price increases rather than higher volumes. That distinction remains crucial. A market driven only by price can lift turnover for a time. A healthier market must persuade consumers to buy more products again.