Retail
Swiss study calls Black Friday a “lose-lose” for retailers and shoppers
A Swiss study describes Black Friday as a “lose-lose” for retailers and consumers, as the cost-of-living squeeze weighs on spending. Swiss non-food retail sales on the discount day are expected to stagnate at around CHF450 million.
Swiss non-food retailers expect CHF 450 million in Black Friday sales, roughly level with last year, as rising living costs and creeping inflation restrain household spending. The forecast from shopping platform blackfridaydeals.ch points to a pause in a two-year slide, rather than a spending surge.
Black Friday falls on November 27, with retailers already promoting deals ahead of the Christmas shopping season. The discount calendar began with Singles’ Day and continues with Cyber Monday on November 30. For shoppers, the offers arrive amid pressure on budgets. For retailers, the crowded schedule means competing for spending that may be spread across several promotions.
A Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute (GDI) analysis calls the pattern a “lose-lose” for both sides. Retailers are cutting prices to attract customers, while consumers are increasingly underwhelmed by the deals. The study’s conclusion comes as more businesses extend promotions across a week or even the whole of November, diluting the impact of the day itself.
Track the Shift from Shops to Screens
Online sales are forecast to gain CHF 10 million, reaching CHF 130 million, while high-street turnover is expected to lose the same amount and settle at CHF 320 million. Together, the figures make up the projected CHF 450 million in Swiss non-food sales for Black Friday.
The estimates come from a September 2026 Demoscope survey commissioned by blackfridaydeals.ch. They suggest a continued shift in where customers shop, even as total spending remains flat. The survey platform expects online retail to capture a larger share of purchases, while physical stores face a modest decline on the discount day.
Retailers are also extending their offers beyond the Friday itself. Many Swiss businesses were not prepared for Singles’ Day, which has a much smaller presence in Switzerland and takes place mainly online. Retailers tend to concentrate on Black Friday or stretch promotions over as long as two weeks. The GDI analysis says that spreading campaigns over more days shifts sales through the month without lifting November’s overall growth.
See Why Shoppers Are Losing Interest
Just under one-third of surveyed shoppers plan to buy something on Black Friday, according to the Demoscope poll commissioned by blackfridaydeals.ch. Younger adults show the strongest interest: more than half of respondents aged 15 to 34 expect to make a purchase.
This group compares online offers before buying wherever it finds the best combination of price and value. That behaviour gives retailers less certainty that a discount advertised in one channel will secure the sale. It also helps explain why online turnover is expected to rise while high-street sales ease.
The GDI’s survey of more than 1,000 people in Switzerland points to waning enthusiasm for the event. 32% called the 2025 offers “disappointing”, while only 10% described them as “attractive”. The results suggest that promotional volume alone is not guaranteeing shoppers a sense of finding a worthwhile deal. With households facing higher living costs, the event is competing for spending from consumers who are weighing offers more carefully.
Weigh the Discount Against the Cost
The GDI estimates CHF 196 million in extra turnover against a CHF 291 million loss in value, a gap that helps explain its “lose-lose” verdict. The institute says customers increasingly buy products they would have purchased anyway, limiting the additional business generated by discounts while reducing the value retailers capture from sales.
That pressure is compounded when promotions run for a week or across the entire month. Sales are distributed over time, but the campaigns do not necessarily produce stronger growth for November as a whole. Retailers may attract attention with successive offers, yet the GDI’s analysis finds that the overall effect can be lower profits and disappointed customers.
For this year, blackfridaydeals.ch expects the Swiss non-food market to stop shrinking after two years of decline, with sales holding around CHF 450 million. The forecast leaves retailers relying on a stable day rather than a major rebound. Consumers, meanwhile, are expected to keep comparing prices and choosing the offer that delivers the best value.