Pandemics and Electricity Shortages Top Switzerland's National Risk List

A stark warning echoes from Bern today as the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) unveils its 2025 national risk analysis. The verdict is clear and unsettling: Switzerland faces its most critical threats from two distinct but equally devastating fronts—severe pandemics and prolonged electricity shortages. While the nation remains one of the safest on the globe, this new report shatters any illusion of invulnerability.

Drawing on the expertise of 265 specialists, the analysis highlights these two dangers as having the highest combination of damage potential and probability. This isn't just a theoretical exercise; it is a call to action for every canton and municipality. The report, titled "Disasters and Emergencies in Switzerland 2025," serves as a grim reminder that despite our stability, the twin specters of a health crisis and a grid collapse loom larger than any other threat. As we move through 2026, the government is signaling that preparedness is no longer optional—it is a national imperative.

The lights may be on, but the threat of them going out remains alarmingly high. While the immediate risk of an electricity shortage has technically declined since the 2020 analysis—thanks to aggressive new rationing plans—the probability of a blackout is still categorized as "high." This is a critical distinction: we are better prepared to manage the chaos, but the chaos is just as likely to arrive.

Switzerland's reliance on complex, interconnected European grids places it in a precarious position. Technical hazards like power failures and accidents at nuclear plants continue to dominate the risk landscape. The FOCP's analysis underscores that while mitigation strategies have improved, the fundamental vulnerability of our energy infrastructure persists. A large-scale power failure wouldn't just be an inconvenience; it would paralyze the economy and disrupt essential services. The message to the energy sector is unequivocal: vigilance cannot waver, and the buffer between stability and darkness remains razor-thin.

In a disturbing trend, the threat of a new pandemic has surged significantly over the last six years. The FOCP attributes this escalating danger to a potent cocktail of modern realities: unchecked globalization, intensified interactions between humans and animals, and the accelerating impact of climate change. Unlike energy shortages, where mitigation has stabilized the risk, the trajectory for biological threats is pointing sharply upward.

Pandemics are classified as a "social hazard," yet their potential for economic devastation rivals any natural disaster. The analysis suggests that the lessons of the past decade have not inoculated us against future outbreaks; rather, the conditions for viral spread are more fertile than ever. With the potential to inflict massive casualties and cripple the economy, a future pandemic represents a catastrophic scenario that demands immediate, robust preventive planning. The report makes it clear: the question is not if another pathogen will emerge, but when—and whether Switzerland will be ready.

The risk landscape is not static; it is a volatile, evolving beast. The 2025 analysis identifies a staggering 44 relevant hazards, with significant shifts since the last report. New entrants to the list include landslides, heavy rainfall with surface runoff, and natural gas supply shortages—direct consequences of a changing climate and geopolitical instability. Conversely, risks like severe weather and computer center failures have been removed, struck off due to technological advances and better risk-reduction measures.

Interestingly, while cyber attacks are acknowledged as a growing everyday nuisance, the experts offer a surprising nuance. A large-scale, coordinated cyber assault capable of crippling multiple sectors is deemed only "partially plausible" due to its immense complexity. While digital skirmishes are inevitable, the probability of a digital apocalypse is currently lower than the physical threats of earthquakes or floods. This recalibration allows authorities to focus resources where they are needed most: on the tangible, high-probability dangers that threaten Swiss soil.

Looking ahead, Switzerland finds itself navigating a storm of "megatrends." Climate change, digitalization, and geopolitical polarization are the invisible hands shaping our future security. The report concludes that these forces will continue to exert profound pressure on the nation's risk profile for decades to come. This analysis is more than a list of fears; it is a strategic blueprint for survival.

Federal, cantonal, and municipal officials, along with operators of critical infrastructure, must now use these findings to fortify the nation. The inclusion of 265 experts from the private sector, administration, and scientific community ensures that this is a comprehensive, data-driven roadmap. As we face a future defined by uncertainty, the mandate is clear: we must adapt to these megatrends or risk being overwhelmed by them. Switzerland's resilience depends on transforming this data into concrete, decisive action.