New study reveals Swiss watch exports only declined 1% despite 39% US tariffs, demonstrating industry adaptability in key market.
"The industry has proved resilient so far."
"This is a blow to the watch industry’s most important export market."
A crushing 39% import duty was meant to cripple the flow of Swiss luxury timepieces into the United States. Yet, the Swiss watch industry stands defiant. Despite the draconian trade barriers erected in August 2025, new data from Deloitte reveals a resilience that has stunned analysts. While doom-mongers predicted a collapse, the sector has held its ground with a tenacity synonymous with Swiss engineering.
Exports have dipped by a mere 1% between January and August 2025 compared to the previous year. This negligible decline, in the face of nearly 40% tariffs, signals a masterclass in adaptability. The industry is not just absorbing the blow; it is maneuvering around it. However, this stability is precarious. The combination of a relentlessly strong franc and falling demand in other global regions creates a perfect storm that manufacturers must navigate with extreme precision. The resilience is real, but the pressure is mounting.
The United States is not just a market; it is the juggernaut of Swiss exports. With CHF 4.4 billion ($5.5 billion) in watches shipped across the Atlantic last year, the US commands a staggering 17% of all global Swiss watch exports. The introduction of the 39% tariff is a direct strike at the heart of this critical revenue stream.
Deloitte’s analysis suggests a tactical frenzy occurred behind the scenes: massive stockpiling. Before the tariff guillotine fell in August, brands likely flooded the US market with inventory to beat the price hike. This strategic front-loading explains the statistical stability we see today. But the hangover is coming. As these stockpiles dwindle, leading Swiss brands will be forced to pass these costs onto the consumer. We are staring down the barrel of substantial price increases that could severely dampen future demand in the industry's most vital territory.
As prices soar for new timepieces, a seismic shift is occurring in consumer behavior. The era of blind loyalty to brand-new luxury is fading, replaced by a pragmatic and booming secondary market. The Deloitte study highlights a critical trend: price sensitivity is driving buyers toward pre-owned watches, and Generation Z is leading the charge.
A remarkable 40% of Gen Z respondents explicitly stated they plan to purchase a second-hand watch. This is not just a trend; it is a transformation of the luxury landscape. While the primary market grapples with tariffs and currency fluctuations, the pre-owned sector is developing dynamically, offering a lifeline for brand engagement. For Swiss watchmakers, this signals an urgent need to embrace the circular economy or risk losing the next generation of collectors to third-party platforms.
While Washington closes its doors, other global powerhouses are throwing theirs open. The industry is aggressively pivoting toward emerging markets to offset the US squeeze. India is booming, recording a robust 7% increase in exports. This growth is not a fluke but a signal of rising wealth and appetite for Swiss craftsmanship in the subcontinent.
Meanwhile, in Latin America, Mexico is establishing itself as a formidable hub. With exports reaching CHF 337 million last year, Mexico is no longer a peripheral player but a central pillar of the industry's diversification strategy. These 'rays of hope' prove that while the US market remains critical, the Swiss watch industry is far from dependent on a single buyer. By cultivating these high-growth regions, Swiss watchmakers are ensuring that even if the American market cools, the global demand for Swiss precision remains red-hot.