Swiss Watch Exports Continued to Fall in 2025 Amid Market Headwinds

The Swiss watch industry has officially marked a second consecutive year of contraction, grappling with a 1.7% decline in export volumes for 2025. Totaling CHF 25.6 billion, the industry is confronting a sobering reality: the post-pandemic boom is definitively over. This downturn follows a 2.8% drop in 2024, signaling a sustained cooling period for one of Switzerland's premier export sectors.

While the year ended with a surprising flicker of hope—a 3.3% rebound in December to CHF 2.10 billion—the overall trajectory remains concerning. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) has been blunt in its assessment, characterizing the year as one defined by "great uncertainty." We are no longer looking at a simple market correction; we are witnessing a fundamental shift in global luxury consumption patterns that demands immediate strategic pivots from our manufacturers.

The collapse in demand from the East is nothing short of alarming. Exports to China have plummeted by more than a third within just two years, a staggering statistic that underscores the volatility of relying on a single dominant market. Once the engine of growth for Swiss horology, China has firmly established itself as the industry's "problem child."

The bleeding continued through the very end of the year. In December alone, exports to China fell by 6.8%, while Hong Kong fared even worse with an 8.0% decline. This is not merely a dip; it is a structural retreat. The anticipated recovery in the Chinese market has failed to materialize, leaving Swiss brands that are heavily exposed to Asian consumers scrambling to offset these massive losses.

In a dramatic reversal of fortunes, the United States has emerged as the undisputed savior of the Swiss watch industry. While Asia falters, American appetite for Swiss timepieces is soaring. December saw a massive 19.2% surge in exports to the US, cementing its status as the single most critical market for our manufacturers.

This resilience is remarkable given the broader economic climate. While customs concerns and potential trade tariffs loom large, the US consumer continues to spend. This divergence between the East and West is reshaping export strategies in real-time. Brands are now aggressively pivoting their focus across the Atlantic, banking on American strength to counterbalance the Asian collapse. The message is clear: for now, the dollar is king.

Beyond consumer demand, Swiss manufacturers are fighting a war on costs. The Swiss franc and gold prices have both hit record levels, creating a brutal double-edged sword for the industry. A strong franc makes our exports significantly more expensive for foreign buyers, while record gold prices drive up the raw material costs for luxury timepieces.

This macroeconomic pressure cooker is squeezing margins from both sides. Manufacturers are forced to either absorb these costs—cutting into profitability—or pass them on to consumers who are already becoming more price-sensitive. It is a delicate balancing act. In an environment where "great uncertainty" is the watchword, the high cost of production in Switzerland is becoming an increasingly heavy burden to bear.

Looking ahead, the forecast offers little comfort. The industry association predicts that 2026 will be "stable at best." We are entering a year characterized by continued volatility, with no quick recovery expected for the Chinese market and unresolved customs concerns in the US.

For Switzerland, this is a call to action. The era of easy growth is behind us. Success in 2026 will require agility, rigorous cost management, and a relentless focus on markets that are actually delivering results. The Swiss watch industry has survived crises before—from the quartz revolution to the smart watch era—but navigating the current geopolitical and economic fog will require every ounce of that historic resilience.