Swiss Population Projected to Reach 10.5 Million by 2055

Switzerland's population is projected to reach 10.5 million by 2055, according to the latest forecast from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). This represents a significant increase from current levels, with the FSO presenting three scenarios for future growth. While the baseline projection indicates 10.5 million inhabitants, a high-growth scenario suggests up to 11.7 million, and a low-growth scenario projects 9.3 million residents by 2055.

Immigration will play a decisive role in Switzerland's population growth, particularly after 2035. The FSO reports that natural population growth will turn negative from 2035 onwards, meaning that immigration will become the sole driver of population increase. This growth will be increasingly tied to Switzerland's economic conditions, highlighting the country's dependence on foreign workforce to maintain its demographic balance.

Switzerland faces a significant demographic shift with its aging population. The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to increase by approximately 50% between 2024 and 2055. Most notably, the 80+ age group will nearly double from 0.54 million to 1.03 million. By 2055, seniors will represent a quarter of the population, surpassing the proportion of children and teenagers (17.9%). This shift will impact the dependency ratio, with 50 seniors for every 100 working-age people by 2055, up from 38 in 2024.

Population growth will not be uniform across Switzerland's regions. The Zurich and Lake Geneva regions are expected to see the highest concentration of population growth. Cantons like Lucerne (32%), St Gallen (25%), Vaud and Geneva (22%), and Aargau and Thurgau (20%) will experience substantial growth. In contrast, some cantons such as Neuchâtel, Schaffhausen, and Appenzell Outer Rhodes will see minimal growth below 1%, while Jura may experience a slight decline of 0.1%.

The population growth projections have sparked political debate in Switzerland. The Swiss People's Party has launched an initiative titled 'No to 10 million Swiss! (sustainability initiative)' aimed at preventing the population from exceeding this threshold by 2050. The initiative calls for strict immigration controls and suggests potential revision of international treaties, including the agreement on free movement of persons with the EU, if the population exceeds 9.5 million.