UBS warns prolonged Hormuz crisis could send oil to $200

Oil could climb to $200 a barrel, or about CHF 162, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for several quarters. UBS economist Alessandro Bee issued the warning to Keystone-SDA as the US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt energy supplies through the strategic waterway.

Hormuz links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider global shipping system. Before the conflict, about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait. A prolonged shutdown would remove a large volume of supply from international markets and leave importers competing for dwindling reserves.

Bee's base case remains less severe. He expects the market to recover gradually over coming quarters, with oil trading between $80 and $100 a barrel and continued volatility. The higher range, between $150 and $200, applies if the closure lasts long enough for reserves to run down and market panic to take hold.

For Switzerland, the risk would arrive through fuel, transport, heating and electricity costs. The country imports most of the energy it consumes, leaving households and companies exposed to global prices even when physical shortages do not appear at Swiss borders. Swissinfo published Bee's assessment on September 11, 2026, citing the Keystone-SDA news agency.

The difference between $100 and $200 oil depends on time, reserves and confidence. Bee said a short disruption could be absorbed as producers, traders and governments adjust shipments. Several quarters of closure would create a different market, with emergency stocks gradually depleted and buyers paying a premium for every available cargo.

That prospect would affect more than petrol prices. Oil feeds into road freight, aviation, chemicals, manufacturing and agriculture. Higher transport and production costs can pass through supply chains before they reach consumers at the pump. Businesses facing weaker demand and rising input costs could delay investment or reduce hiring.

Bee described the price range as a risk scenario, not UBS's central forecast. The bank expects a gradual recovery in oil markets, with prices between $80 and $100 a barrel. He said the market could panic if reserves ran out under a prolonged closure, pushing prices to $150 to $200.

The shock would also complicate central bank policy. Persistent energy inflation could keep consumer prices high while recession risks weaken economic activity. Investors have already pushed bond yields higher, Bee said, partly because of inflation and expectations of interest rate increases. He added that some investors may also be questioning the sustainability of public debt.

Switzerland has avoided fuel shortages, but higher energy prices are already shaping the winter outlook. A related Swissinfo report published on August 26, 2026, said the country faced increased concern over winter gas supplies six months into the US-Iran war.

Swiss households would feel a prolonged energy shock through petrol, diesel, heating and goods transported by road. Companies with energy intensive operations would face higher costs and could pass them on, reduce output or postpone expansion. The impact would vary by sector and canton, with manufacturing regions and transport businesses particularly exposed to fuel and power prices.

Switzerland's energy system offers some protection through hydroelectric production, diversified electricity sources and storage arrangements. Those buffers cannot fully insulate the country from global oil and gas markets. Switzerland is integrated with European energy networks and depends on international trade for much of its fuel.

The immediate policy challenge would involve balancing affordability, supply security and inflation control. Any support for households or businesses would also have to be weighed against pressure on public finances. Bee said bond markets were already experiencing difficult conditions, with higher yields reflecting inflation concerns, possible rate increases and questions about debt sustainability.