December 7, 2024|
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|12 months agoSwiss Pension Forecasting Error Traced to Methodology Flaws
Investigation reveals systematic methodology errors in pension forecasts affected referendum voting information, leading to senior official's resignation
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Generated IllustrationKey Takeaways
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- The forecasting error in Swiss pension expenditure was caused by faulty methodology, not simple calculation mistakes.
- Two specific errors in the calculation model resulted in implausible 10-year financing forecasts.
- Incorrect financial outlooks were presented to voters ahead of the September 2022 and March 2024 referendums.
- Stéphane Rossini, head of the Federal Social Insurance Office, will resign at the end of June 2025.
By The Numbers
CHF 4 billion
Overestimation of expenditure
6%
Percentage difference
2033
Forecast year
They Said
"Incorrect forecasting of Swiss pension expenditure resulted from faulty methodology rather than classic miscalculations."