Swiss winter tourism expected to remain near record levels

Switzerland is heading into another winter tourism season near its all-time high. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute expects about 18.7 million overnight stays in 2026/27, which begins in November. That would put the season just below the record set in 2025/26, with KOF forecasting a decline of 0.1%, or around 15,000 stays.

The outlook follows a strong summer and has changed little since KOF’s spring forecast. Demand from Europe is expected to edge higher, while weaker long-haul travel will weigh on the total. Swiss visitors, the largest group in the winter season, are forecast to hold steady. Taken together, the projections point to a tourism sector sustaining the exceptional level reached last winter, rather than adding substantially to it. The headline total remains high even as visitor markets move in different directions.

Swiss guests are expected to contribute around 9.5 million overnight stays, by far the largest share of winter demand. KOF forecasts that domestic visitors will maintain the record level they reached in the previous season, giving the overall outlook a stable base as international markets shift.

The institute points to Switzerland’s robust economy as a support for domestic demand. A weaker Swiss franc also makes holidays abroad more expensive, keeping winter breaks at home attractive to residents. KOF expects domestic demand to remain stable, rather than rise further from its record. That matters for the overall forecast: the home market is large enough to anchor the season while European arrivals increase and long-haul stays decline. The projections place Swiss travellers at the centre of another high-volume winter for the country’s tourism sector.

Visitors from Europe are forecast to generate around 5.6 million overnight stays, an increase of 0.8% on last winter. KOF expects slightly more European guests, helping offset the softer outlook for long-haul markets and supporting a total close to the previous season’s record.

The expected rise comes with a constraint: subdued consumer sentiment is limiting growth, according to KOF. That leaves European demand moving upward, but only modestly. Alongside the stable Swiss market, it is the main source of support in the winter forecast. The balance between these two markets and the decline in long-haul stays explains why KOF projects a near-record season rather than a new peak. The figures describe a tourism outlook led by domestic visitors and a small increase from nearby European markets.

Long-haul markets are forecast to account for around 3.6 million overnight stays, down 1.7%. KOF links the subdued outlook to the political situation, including wars and high oil prices. High airfares are expected to keep demand from Asia and the Gulf states below pre-war levels, while American travellers are forecast to be more cautious amid gloomy consumer sentiment. KOF also expects fewer guests from other long-haul markets.

Those declines are projected to be offset largely by rising European demand, while Swiss visitors remain steady. The result is a winter season expected to finish close to the 2025/26 record, with about 18.7 million overnight stays overall. KOF’s forecast has remained largely unchanged since spring. For Swiss tourism, the outlook points to continued high visitor volumes, with the mix of guests shifting as stronger European demand counters weaker travel from farther afield.